War Room (hypothetical conflicts and how they could play out)

[mechaqua]

if this needs to be moved please do so

Any way this is thread that presents hypothetical wars and how they might play, you present a hypothetical war situation and debate the outcome


I do not endorse war i prefere diplomatic soultions however i do like to dabble in hypotheticals

suggest any crazy hypothetical war you want (but i would hope we could take this seriously. and keep it realistic)

note in all these conflicts diplomatic efforts have failed
I ll give an example its very obvious but....

Iran has declared they are months away from developing Nuclear weapons or have already made the weapons and intend to use them to attack Israel and any one else stands in their way, they refuse to negotiate, they have stated they intend to use nuclear weapons agianst those who do not break ties with Israel( well this isn't far from the truth sadly)

now the sides on one side Iran
advantages

it has Nuclear weaponry one of the largest standing army forces on the planet armed with Gen 4 and Gen 5 fighters, it is mountainous and well protected against against many surface busters, most its ground force are devoted to its ayatollah its naval force is one of the most powerful in the Persian gulf, it has large number of troopss great numbers.


Economically sanctions have been put in place however china in the need for oil has secretly ignored the sanctions and bought oil, the sanctions have had far less effect then hoped leaving war the only option

The government is lead by religious government who will undoubtedly refuse surrender to the infidels and will use this religion to inspire the people and rally them plus its on their home turf and will fight hard to keep the revolution alive public support is given beacuse going agasinst the goverment is going against g-d

disatvantages

technology,
anti missle deffense
souronded
lack of allies
conscripted army many much of which is untrained Iranian army numbers at total around 12 million about 11 million are not fully trained or are in the reserve

On the other side

The United States

Currently the most powerful military force on the planet ( rivaled only by China)
equipped with the best military technology money can buy a volunteer army full of well trained educated and specialized soldiers

the most powerful naval presence in the Persian gulf, powerful ships and long range strike capabilities a close confrontation with the enemy is unlikely

The US is the best in conventional warfare, meaning direct confrontations would favor the US

Strategically the US has large numbers of forces station in Afghanistan and Iraq

Despite the US's reputation internationally declining many European nations and Turkey would fear a nuclear armed Iran especially if sanctions and other diplomatic efforts have failed and Iran has begun blackmailing Europe and turkey threatening retaliation unless the would support perhaps even send troops to aid a US leaving the us with many allies

disadvantages

Poor planing in Iraq has drained a lot of public support for another war US citizens are vulnerable to war weariness

US forces are fighting in mountainous terrain meaning it will be harder to take out military positions meaning the war will be much slower

insurgency will be a problem

Israel

Israel has a highly trained military force many would be considered trained as special forces according to some standards

Israel has a powerful air force equipped the best gen 5 fighters even a few gen 6 including f-22 and f-32 JSFs

Despite durring peacetime israeli poltics seem divieded but in war time and faced with the threat of annhilation israel is united

majority of the Population is trained in miltary tactics

potentailly nuclear arsenal

well intrenched missle defense system

disadvantges

surrounded by enemies and faced with the threat internal insurgency from terrorists who support Iran

Small population and having a large portion the population exempt from military service

very far from the front line in order to get troops to Iran it would have to send troops through Turkey or go around the Arabian peninsula leaving Israel vulnerable to pirate attacks

relies on trading Israel posses no petrol or oil resources it requires foreign trade to acquire resources if some nations are intimated might cut trade

Europe and Turkey Ireland and switzerland will stay neutral

with military Technology on par with the US and armed with nuclear weapons and armed with gen 5 and 6 aircraft,

a large international fighting force

combined Naval force dominates the Mediterranean

a very rich economy

well trained military

disadvantages

war weariness the political climate of Europe can shift fast

other players

Russia will most likely stay neutral

China will most likely be buying oil shipping overland and providing miltary equipment well offically claiming neutralty

Pakaisthan will continune publlically support the US but probably provide some support to Iran

India neutrality

the middle eastern nations except Syria and Lebanon

If Israel participates most nations will automatically stay neutral but support iran or will just stay quiet let the Israelis and Persians fight this is not an Arab conflict

Syria and Lebonon

will publically support Iran and might even attack Israel in which Israel will be force to withdraw alot of soliders from Iran to repel Syrian forces

Syria has numbers on Israel but is behind on training and technology the Israeli army might have moderate diffculty when facing this force but this intervention by syria could split the conflict making Turkish and US forces might have to attack syria in order to get Israeli forces back in Iran do to Israeli specailiztion in fighting insurgenants

[Inevitable.Exit]

Firstly I'd like to point out that America is the only country currently with gen 5 fighter (The F-22), with China beginning to produce a gen 4.5 and Russia has a prototype out. There is no gen 6 ;- ). Also, the F-22 has not and will not be exported. Even though Israel is pushing for some (Sending them the JSF earlier [2012]).

Anyway.

This conflict would easily spiral out of control. Firstly Israel would violate Jordanian airspace and fly through Iraq (US would allow it) to attack Iran's nuclear facilities. Israel would officially announce its Nuclear capabilities, while simultaneously placing nuclear armed missle submarines outside of Iran. The United States would be scrambling to solve the conflict. IF all efforts failed, the United States and presumably a large part of the world would push through Iraq into Iran. Iran is blocked from the west, and dominated in the Arabian gulf by a vastly superior Navy (America). Air strikes commence on Iranian oil fields and other important structures for the countries economy. B-2 bombers assisted by F-22 raptors begin destroying Surface to Air sites. Once air superiority is established, B-52, B-1 bombers begin destroying more military targets as forces roll through Iran. The issue however is Insurgency as Iran would not give up. Israel also would have a bigger part. After being almost exterminated once before, there is no way Israel would even take a chance. They are some serious mofo's.

I also wouldn't put it out of line to say Israel just instantly nukes Iran. No point in taking a risk. Plus every person who follows military stuff knows that Israel has them (SO much evidence).

There really is no way for Iran to survive at all. Unless Russia intervenes, which would become WWIII and the end of the world.

Especially since China would Ally with Russia. Pakistan or India would be brash and join Russia/China first. The other would try and remain neutral, but the other would get China/Russia to attack them. They would be rushed (France in WWII). They would result to nuclear weapons to stop invasion of their country. The Chinese would begin attacking Japan and pushing into S. Korea through N. Korea. The US navy would immediately go to protect Japan and use a superior navy to control the sea of Japan and E. China sea. Also to protect Taiwan.

Things would spiral from there. And again. WWIII and end of the world.

[Shdo]

first, the arab world dont want to see a nuclear iran just as much as anyone else. the definition of infidel is vary broad and flexable.

as such the only allies iran will have in this conflict will be syria (who is really pissing everyone around them) and hizzbullah (not to be misjudged with lebanon)

both those have groups will have one special problem in operating, for example. in the last lebanon war israel used 10% of its airforce, the estimates say that 20% would caused too much demage, in a all out war the full 100%+ power will be used. and while it wont stop the hizbullah rockets you need to remember that those rockets didnt really do anything so the civilians will endure, that is what we do.

syria, wont be a challange, unlike hizzbullah, they are a country, and their doctrine is as such. they can try tactics but israel have no reason to enter syria like in lebanon.

a syrian israeli war:
syria have the advantage in fodder commando and artillery, both are fast negated by supirior troops, airforce armor and it will surprise you, numbers.
the syrian doctrine say that damasqus must not fall, threaten it enough and they will agree for a cease fire.
and if they will decide to bomb israel with rockets like hizzbullah did it will cause little damage because the area they can bomb is far less populated and less industrial.


now a war with iran.
unlike what anyone thinks, when a country such as iran say they will nuke someone else and everyone who wont cooporate with them they commited suicide.

they will be nuked from all directions for the threat of using nuclear power in a few months.

the amount of missiles iran have that can reach europe and israel are small, the anti balistic systems will be enough to take care of those and the world nukes that will follow will take the rest out.

in such a war there will be only one end, a radiated desert.


now the question is if russia will actually go to war with the world for iran. the answer is no. the russians are not evil or stupid, they are simply intresants and their intrest with iran is mostly to sell them stuff. and what can be better then selling to a devastated country who have unlimited oil reserves?

china wont help such a gangup, sure they want oil but there are other ways to get it such as rebuilding iran and getting a foothold there like the russians.

india and pakistan will never be at the same side, they will nuke one another first.most likely they will stay neutral.

the rest of the world, europe mostly...it seems they dont understand how dire this situation is to them, but i think they will either be quiet about this or even join the nuke party.



now if israel does use weapons directly on iran it will be mostly a air raids (the largest fleet of f-16 outside of america, over a 100 that are custimized to reach iran without refuling) and MAYBE nukes assuming we have them.
if israel will use nukes it will be a breaking point in the middle east, every country will start to try and reach such weapons but will mostly fail for the same reasons iran failed. countries who actually have peace agreements with israel will mostly be allowed because they are considered non hostile.

this can either signel a bright future to the middle east where countries have a new reason for reaching peace and understanding or a very bright green future once a country such as egypt get a coup detat, (actually no since egypt have a very condensed pop centers, a single nuke can kill millions and a single nuke to the asuwan dem will cause a cascade of water that will kill everyone in egypt so they have too much to lose from a nuclear war with anyone)

[mechaqua]

China would never ally its self with Russia there is too much bitterness, Soviet Chinese Skirmish in cold war, aside from that The Russians have had poor relations with China in recent years, second of all a Chinese invasion of Japan would not be likely at this moment(although a good topic for another hypothetical war situation) The Chinese can not afford a US intervention which would have repercussions for both sides China would lose its market, and US would lose its supplier and the two superpowers are probably not willing to destroy themselves. leaving Russia a chance to become the dominant power on earth.

The only reason why N. Korea has not attacked the south is China,


The Fact is a war with The US or alliance with Russia, is not in Chinese interest i have talk to several of my fellow US, Chinese students from Taiwan and the PRC and they agree China despite having vast wealth it does not have the power to challenge the US as the dominant military power nor does it want to as long as US is buying Chinese goods as far as the Chinese concerned the US can remain the dominant military power for now, as long as the have the money

The Chinese navy is not to far behind the US and would prove to be a challenge

India and Pakistan have many measures in place to prevent nuclear war with each other although the situation in Pakistan currently is frightening and could result in a major nuclear conflict





"I cant keep up with this $h@t i try to understand one thing on one day and then the next day twenty other f$%$#g things happen"
Lewis Black

[Shdo]

as a side note for iranian gaining nuclear power, i dont think that they will launch icbm the moment they will have enough stockpile, this will be suicidal but it does give them a safety umbrela from attacks in the future, allowing them to send out terror wave after terror wave without worrying of an actuall attack.

think of this scenerio, its several years after the reactor went online and iran might have or might not have nuclear weapons, the world is still putting sanctions on iran but there are those who still wants money. iran continue to trade with china and russia.

without fear of attack and after showing that the west cannot challange them, iran is starting to export more and more weapons to shiite groups in the middle east, starting to cause unrest and rebelion against the sunni nations. in the end they even succeed to topple one of the curropted rulers and instal their own puppet. the arab world is in a state of shock, their degenerated rulers cant stop the shiite tide and more and more groups are asking for indepandance or even removal of their sunni leaders.

but this isnt the end, without any reaction from the west and without any worthwhile counter attack from the arab world the iranian get ambitious and give a dirty bomb to their operatives.

now they know what will be israel reaction if they use that bomb on them so they start small first, a bomb is activated in a heavy populated area of sunni control, maybe riad, the saudi capital? the iranian deny any involvment and the world dont want to risk a war for something that isnt sure (maybe it was a pakistani dirty bomb? maybe they bought it in the black market from russian smugglers?)

either way we entered the true nuclear era, radiation poisening will start to be a valid tactic and dont fool yourself, nuclear power and religious extremist dosnt work.

in the end they will even get a nuclear device and will launch it or smuggle it, most likely to israel, israel will retaliate with unspeakable fury and you will have nuclear missiles flying to europe and american basses in the middle east (israel have the arrow 3 program that work well only because we are so close to them (reletivatly) but eastern europe and even some of the western europian countries wouldnt be so lucky and some millions will die.

iran will lose that war but the price on the west would be horriable.



in 1981, 8 israeli jets went to a suicidal mission on a nuclear facility in iraq, the reactor was destroyed and all the jets got back home. the world condemed israel for this attack which happend a few weeks before the reactor would become operative.

if israel hadnt done that, what would the world do after iraq invaded kuwait? would they moved in or allowed iraq to take out more and more land from the emirates? and if they had attacked, how many coalition troops and civilians would have died from radiation bombs?

no one wants war, but its foolish to turn a blind eye to it. when a war comes you dont want to invlove nukes in it, and sometimes its better to lose thousands to avoid the death of millions.