Return of the Bear: How Do We Deal With the Russians?

[earthforge]

Recently in the news, Georgia and Russia have been fighting. This conflict was initiated by an incursion on the border of Russia by Georgia. As a result, the Russians returned fire basically (with Pthe order being initiated right when Putan was sitting next to Bush in the stands at the Olympics), and temporarily invaded that sector of Georgia. Now, with France having brokered a cease-fire, they have almost all pulled out of Georgia. There are still border skirmishes. Yesterday, Cheney made the announcement thaat America is sending military equipment to Georgia.

Now, why has Russia waited to this time to attack Georgia?

Georgia is in support of the western world, or the Us more precisely. Is Bush's response sensible or not?

This thread is for the discussion of the Russian strategy. Putan iis not stupid like our choice of presidents. Rather, he must have carefully orchestrated this attack as our own military commanders didn't even recognize it. To quote from a Trek commenting on the Russians (via the usage of Romulans), "It's always chess with them, isn'tit?"

[Shdo]

first some corrections.

the situation is this, Georgia have two parts of it that broke off, they didn't joined Russia but are supported by Russia.
those are southern ostia (sp) and another one that i cant even pronounce.

either way, both those new 'countries' were not recognized by anyone but Russia.
now Georgia decided to take back one of those two (the ostian one) and as a result Russia attacked to protect those guys.

now there is no doubt that Russia kicked Georgia out of those areas but they also started to invade Georgia itself and bomb Georgian cities.

so now lets look at the broader picture, Georgia is on the border of Russia, its also a pro western country and a candidate to NATO, this makes the Russian high command very nervous at the possibility of having another country around them in NATO, so they did what they did (invading Georgia itself) as a deterrent to either Georgia or NATO to actually join forces.


the question isn't why Russia waited but why the hell did Georgia attacked oestia when they are not equipped to fight Russia or joined NATO yet.



as to what should be done, its clear that Russia tries to show more muscles in recent years, be it bombers getting close to UK air space or more military buildup, they clearly want to broadcast the massage that they are not irrelevant and still a major power.
but i don't think that anyone really have any patience to this show of power and the results will backfire at Russia, nothing serious but it wont be fun either.
some trade agreements would be canceled, military exercises would be canceled and they will get the cold shoulder.

[earthforge]

Shdo: Thank you for the further history lesson. I appreciate it, as I haven't taken US History yet.

Well, the point is, the game is over. In regards to NATO, I agree partially. The Europeans in the comments on the newspapers have noted that the Georgians are actually known as hotheads. For some reason theywere acting provoking on their border with Russia, and then they attacked. This will damage their enbterance to NATO most likely.

We are commenting two different aspects. I am commenting about the US lack of influence on this issue, while your describing the Russian motive. I valkue the addition of that in our discussion. You have a high likelyhood of being right, given that Russia still has the memory of power. To some, that memory never disappears. Now Russia is, as you said, flexing it's muscles. But there is also a possibility it wants to expand. Russia has been severly decreased in size ever since the Soviet Union ended.

Thank you again for the historical background.

[Shdo]

the lack of influence is actually logical, i mean would America go to war with Russia over this? especially when its possible to end this with simply some political pressure.

all this assuming the Russian will not simply decide to take over Georgia! if that happens Georgia might be sacrificed but its likely to see NATO expand very fast to in order to make sure that Russia doesn't start annexing more countries around her.

actually when i think about it, they wont allow Georgia to fall because in Georgia there is a gas line that rival Russia and giving Russia both lines simply wont happen. Georgia will remain sovereign and will join NATO because Europe need this gas and wont allow Russia to control or threaten Europe supply.

[Spartan27]

I can't say I'm that educated about Georgia in general, I certainly know more about the state than the country, but from my understanding, what Georgia did was actually quite stupid, they in a sense provoked action from Russia, but on the other hand Russia's response seems to have been a bit extreme.

The reality is that Russia is still a very strong country, though they have decreased in power, they are still a very strong player, especially with it's energy resources.

Overall it's a tricky situation I believe, because the U.S while it has in a sense a duty and a incentive to help Georgia, they can't overplay their hand with Russia.

Will there be any military action by the U.S? Well I would say that there is little to no chance of this happening, not only because the two powers would be insane to risk a escalation, the U.S doesn't really have the resources to do such a thing. Though they could in theory help through financial and military supplies, as well as advisors, but really even this is a slippery slope.

Overall I see a lot of political pressure coming from the NATO states, and eventually Russia will pull back, but the message will have been sent.

In terms of Russia taking back it's former soviet states, I think this will be interesting to see, it will depend upon how the soviet states continue to develop, as well as how it's people look at how Russia is growing economically.

I also want to point out that I think Shdo probably has a better grasp on the situation than me, it was enlightening, I really need to brush up on my knowledge of Russia sense their role in the world is expanding.

[Shdo]

there is a small chance for a ukrainian Russian tension over this.

Ukraine isn't in NATO but want to be one and don't want to rejoin Russia.
and what was Ukraine response to the attack on Georgia? they limited Russia movement through their territorial waters. many countries in the area don't want to see Russia to start resurrecting its military might.

and Europe wants to push the front line as much as possible and to secure the energy sources.

expect Russia to get some kind of burn from this.

but still it was a stupid move on Georgia side (but keep in mind that southern ostia is considered part of georgia but the rest of the world so actually there wasnt any invasion)

[emoloz]

I dom't know why countries can't leave other places to be independant if they fail its there own fault they'll come crawling back. No need for war over it I thought both sides were pretty dumb. I know what i say doesn't sound that siple ebcause people are greedy but eh people should learn to be patient.

[Shdo]

because it doesn't work like that, for example Georgia, there are Georgian people on both ostia and the other separatist region. and there are ostians in Georgia itself.
sometimes expulsion can be the most stable solution, maybe the current stream of refugies from ostia into georgia will prevent a future war, or cause one.

but you need to think about it, Russia had overwhelming forces in the region,outnumbering the Georgians several times, the question is how did they knew to put all those forces there before hand? and why did they invaded Georgia itself when they clearly beat their army in ostia? could it have been planned? could the current attacks from every direction at Georgia when the fighting is already over is an attempt to take over this country? returning them into great Russia?

those events are only the beginning of a series of events that might cause other wars with other countries.

[Kawazoe]

Requests for ceasefire are all that's needed in this situation. Military interventions and threats, while they may or may not start another Cold War, will without a doubt strain the already tense relationship between the U.S. and Russia.

[♠ Saint ♠]

Why should we stick our proverbial nose into something that is essentially not our damn business? Georgia made a stupid move and Russia overreacted. Let them work it out.

[Shdo]

because:

A- this mostly happened because the west gave many promises to Georgia and Ukraine about joining NATO and protection for their sovereignty which made the Georgian overconfidence of their western allies.

B-in Georgia there is a major pipeline that supply Europe with gas, without that pipeline they will be much more dependant on Russian and other suppliers which will cause only problems in the future.

C-a country is offered to enter NATO and then is attacked by Russia, who said that other small countries wont follow? this can be the start of a much greater and worse events that will eventually effect other countries that might 'think' that it got nothing to do with them.

[Inevitable.Exit]

Well

The most important thing to remember is Georgia was invited to join NATO by America due to the fact that Georgia jumped on the boat to help us in Bush's war. Some of the larger European countries blocked it because they knew that Georgia and the Ukraine were in an unstable region.

If they would have been in NATO...this could have been really bad.

So how do we deal with the Russians? We kick them out of G8 to insult them. Then limit their contact with NATO. We then push hard to get Ukraine into NATO. Poland signed the contract to add a US missile defense shield in their country today and in return we will add Patriot missile batteries, a small group of US soldiers and strengthen their other defenses.

Georgia was stupid for what they did. Even after they were warned to NOT provoke Russia.

Military aid by America for Georgia (like they wanted) would have been ridiculous as not only would our military be stretched WAY too thin, but the conflict would definitely escalate. Same with if a European country had sent troops.

This is a THIN line to walk on. If we piss the Russians off too much it can be bad. Because we need them to put pressure on Iran (important to my boy shdo! Although I watched a report on Israel's military and I was shocked as hell at how advanced they were). We also need their oil. And the last thing we want is Russia to get even closer to China and the other small former soviet countries saying "Look NATO and America are threat".

But at the same time, we have to be tough enough to show that America (and to a lesser extent, NATO) still has pull. Although we are looking mightily hypocritical, you know, respect a countries sovereignty etc. :rolleyes:

[♠ Saint ♠]

Aaaah, see I did not know that about the pipeline and the NATO invite. I went digging on Wiki for answers but sometimes the expediant path is to ask rather than look.

As for our militery to be stretched too thin, that was my other concern. Fighting 2 conflicts and then adding a third is ludicrous. Then again, I tend towards isolationistic type policies that'll keep us on our side of the world. I'm just hoping we don't toss troops into the mess if it escalates.

[Shdo]

selling weapons to Georgia is enough.

for example, today i learned that israel stopped selling weapons to Georgia in order not the piss the Russians. i think its a mistake because Russia is already selling weapons to every single country and enemy israel have so what is the point in not pissing them? beside its not like we sold them all they wanted (tanks for example) only UAV's, GA missiles and military training and anti terror training.

i think that Georgia shouldnt be abondaned but its not a reason to go to war with Russia, some economic threats are enough.


(what have you seen? the robotic boats? merkava mk4 taking down a heli? or the active armor for light and heavy armor?)

[mechaqua]

I believe this was said before

But The When the Soviet union broke up many of the newly emerged former republics inherited the financial problems of the former USSR Russian Federation inherited the most of this the former republics sat upon piles of weapons. Russia in the 1990's was essentially in constant state of economic depression wealth was concentrated amongst a few savvy investors, who manged to buy up the old state run companies. Russia has recently in new millennium began to economically recover, and siting on the vast military arsenal wants to show the world that they are still a super power or at least a world power. They obviously wish to absorb these provinces either for military reasons to keep pressure on NATO, or maybe there is resources i don't know a lot of Osseita and the other region its also a ploy to show the power of the Russian federation and perhaps frighten the EU nations a little and make them realize that Russia is still a power to be recokend with and perhaps stop looking at them as a backwards nation the best way to deal with Russia is to pressure them economically despite the recovery they sanctions from 5-15 or longer months could break the economy its not growing at a rate like nations like China,or India or even Ireland (Yes Ireland has a fast growing economy) wealth is concentrated and if investors back out the economy could suffer a set back i doubt Russia will try to take back the former states Kazakhstan and the Ukraine would prove to be a difficult challenges their military arsenal is large and could have hidden nuclear arsenals, ( yes both nations surrendered their arsenals but soviet unions arsenal was vast it is possible that several were unaccounted for and are in possession of some of the former republics ) a complete absorption of Georgia could result in backlash and a confrontation with NATO would result in disaster the Warsaw pact is gone and some its former members are now NATO members Russia would find few allies except maybe the former republics and China might take advantage and even if Russia lost a hypothetical war China could easily move in to Kamchatka and Southern Siberia
This scenario is highly unlikely Putin is to smart(evil bit smart) and realizes that he has made his point Russia is still strong and has a modern military apparatus that rivals China and The US, the only nations that could stand up to Russian military might (the Euro nations as one entity could, and a united middle east:rofl)

the bear has not return its been there its just been hibernating

[Shdo]

things heating up.

NATO and Russia showing cold shoulders, Georgia got another promise to join NATO, this time by Germany.
on top of that the deal to put anti missiles systems in poland only got signed faster thanks to the recent fightings, but it dosnt end there, the Ukraine also said they are willing to put such systems if the west will it. Russia threaten they will aim nukes at Ukraine for that.

and the plot thickens, Syria OFFERED russia to place missiles against europe.

the return of the cold war?

[Inevitable.Exit]

things heating up.

NATO and Russia showing cold shoulders, Georgia got another promise to join NATO, this time by Germany.
on top of that the deal to put anti missiles systems in poland only got signed faster thanks to the recent fightings, but it dosnt end there, the Ukraine also said they are willing to put such systems if the west will it. Russia threaten they will aim nukes at Ukraine for that.

and the plot thickens, Syria OFFERED russia to place missiles against europe.

the return of the cold war?It quite possibly could be Shdo. But unlike last time, this is a Cold War that Russia is in a position to win. Their exports of oil and weapons is amazing.

Russia signing a weapons deal with Syria is a huge issue. Not only because they are expected of being supportive to insurgency in Iraq and Afghanistan, but because they are also a threat to Israel.

If a cold war were to start again, it isn't winnable by America alone. With the billions+ of dollars being poured into Iraq and Afghanistan, the budget to advanced military weapons just isn't possible without help from other NATO members(Programs like the Joint Strike Fighter F-35 Lightning II). Add in the slumping American economy and the rising Russian economy it is just a major issue.

But that could change. Supposedly an Iraq pullout date is close to being signed (shooting for out of Iraqi cities by mid 09 and out of Iraq by 2010) so a large portion of the spending will be re-allocated (Eh unless a certain Republican presidential nominee decides to go Rambo against Iran [Would need NATO, UN or Israeli support IMO]).

Either way, I see Georgia and Ukraine getting into NATO by end of 2009. A NATO military base would be quickly established in both countries. The main obstacle remaining is France (oh the French :rolleyes:).

Russia selling advanced arms to both Iran and Syria is a huge slap in the face to NATO and the UN (who is trying to stop Irani nuclear weapons dev...ironically need Russia to push them).

If America was smart, we would start trying to get really cozy with the Chinese, because if another war did break out they would easily be the balancing factor (Russia can't win without them).

[Shdo]

i dont think they are in a position to win anything, first, as much as you might think that they are a economical power you need to remember that they have major problems.
first their population is getting smaller, and with the rise with life span you can expect a ever growing elderly population in a shrinking country.
you cant become a superpower or challange one when your economy and civic planning is going down the drain.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Russia

syria deal is the most stupid thing they could do, their old scuds can already hit every point in israel for years now and those missiles are only good for actually firing on europe. suddenly the israeli attack on that nuclear reactor serves someone else...(me ranting, we got criticized for blowing the iraqi nuclear reactor in the 80's but if we didnt than there would be alot of green coalition troops in GW1.)

by ASKING the russians to put those missiles they say "we want you to put a weapon that can hit people who arent even close to threaten us," not that it will matter, the syrian army is a empty shell and wont be able to protect those launchers or use them considering that they have border with iraq(US) israel(who proved several times in the last years that syrian air defences are...lacking) and turkey(a soon to be EU member).


as for a new cold war, europe isnt an extension of america anymore, the sum of expanses in the EU on militery is much greater than america, their GDP is also impressive and since they are keep growing in the term of states you can be sure they have much more place to grow to. they are even more threatened by russia, so you can count on them as well. china wont take a part of this, they will preffer to simply keep growing on their own (as the saying goes, "china will grow larger")

[speedphantom]

I find this topic rather humourous since debates have 2 sides yet this seems rather American foreign policy focussed and makes Russia sound like the bad guys:lmao. It's all relative anyway so it's more of an opinion that Russians are the "bad guys".

[Shdo]

well, no one yet backed them up and the world opinion is pretty much against russia in this matter (even if they did want to save russian lives in ostia and that other place, it still dosnt explain why they invaded Georgia, blew up bridges after the Georgian signed the cease fire and apperantly they looted a city or two.

if this is a defensive war than why did they took over major cities with ground infantry?

[mechaqua]

Russia threatening the Ukraine is a bad idea on Russia's part the Ukraine for the most part is temperate enough to have a long growing season which provides Russia with food, yes the Russian army is powerful but a combined force of NATO which is the most powerful military force on the planet (beacuse it combines the US and combined forces of most of europe and it has allies like Israel Eygpt, Jordan , could defeat the Russians (not easily) Russia military is number 3 behind The US and China, The Russian military wont be up to optimum capacity by 2015-2020 this has been admitted by the Russian Government but could, especially since NATO has grown in numbers If Georgia and Ukraine Join Russia would be in poor position strategically without the support of its former states Kazakhstan would most likely stay neutral, leaving Russia with no allies the Chinese would stay neutral it would rather see its two largest rivals three including Europe weaken them selves in war. leaving China the un rivaled super power.


The Russians as far as military technology is not far behind the US and NATO nations they are 2 years from producing a generation 6 fighter(think F-32 JSF and F-22 Raptor) fit for combat
the US and NATO will have a lot more Gen 6 fighters, still having slight air superiority, as far as ground supperiority NATO has the advantage

France would most likely support NATO operations their adminstartion has changed Charaiq is not the president any more and the polltical culture of Paris is far diffrent then rest of the country, the steryotypical veiw of french polltics is that of parisans who tend (not all parisians in fact probably a minority ) belive L'estate est Paris

However this war situation is unlikely